Robotics Bottleneck Research机器人瓶颈研究

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company

Harmonic Drive SystemsHarmonic Drive Systems 6324

Country国家 Japan日本

Systems系统 Muscle肌肉

Bottlenecks瓶颈 P14 Actuators, reducers, encoders执行器、减速器与编码器

Market cap市值 Live, via TradingView.实时数据,来自 TradingView。

Strain-wave reducers and integrated actuators for small robots, SCARA, cobots and humanoid joints. Q1 FY3/2027 operating margin recovered to 11.0% on a 37% full-year profit-guidance raise.

谐波减速器与集成执行器,用于小型机器人、SCARA、协作机器人与人形关节。FY3/2027 第一季度营业利润率回升至 11.0%,全年利润指引上调 37%。

What it doesStrain-wave reducers and integrated actuators for small robots, SCARA, cobots and humanoid joints. Q1 FY3/2027 operating margin recovered to 11.0% on a 37% full-year profit-guidance raise.

在干什么谐波减速器与集成执行器,用于小型机器人、SCARA、协作机器人与人形关节。FY3/2027 第一季度营业利润率回升至 11.0%,全年利润指引上调 37%。

Name sheetHarmonic Drive Systems

Why it mattersThe benchmark strain-wave transmission component for small robots, SCARA arms, collaborative robots and humanoid joints, and Leaderdrive's most direct listed comparable at a fraction of the multiple; content per joint is the most direct transmission path from humanoid volume to component revenue.

为何重要小型机器人、SCARA 机械臂、协作机器人与人形关节的谐波传动基准件,是绿的谐波倍数远低于此的最直接上市对标;每关节含量是人形放量向部件收入传导最直接的路径。

Caveat

For the year ended March 2026, reported 2026-05-13, consolidated order intake was JPY 61,613m (+16.2% year over year), revenue JPY 59,557m (+7.0%) and operating profit JPY 2,567m against JPY 6m the prior year -- a return from near-zero to real profitability. Q1 FY3/2027 (April-June 2026), reported 2026-08-07, showed the trend accelerating: revenue JPY 16,681m (+23.6%), operating profit JPY 1,840m, net profit JPY 1,274m, and operating margin moving from 0.9% to 11.0%.

Full-year guidance was raised the same day: revenue from JPY 68,000m to JPY 74,500m, operating profit from JPY 6,200m to JPY 8,500m (+37.1%). The company's stated reason is demand across industrial robots and semiconductor manufacturing equipment -- humanoids are not cited as a driver, and no order-intake figure was disclosed with the Q1 release.

The market has re-rated well ahead of that operational recovery: the stock is up roughly 150% over the trailing 52 weeks (JPY 2,316 to a peak of JPY 9,150) against a trailing P/E near 187x on TTM net income of JPY 2.92bn -- a narrative-driven multiple on a business whose own disclosures do not yet name humanoid demand. This is the site's cleanest direct listed comparable to Leaderdrive: real, disclosed operating recovery, at a rich but not yet extreme multiple, still waiting on the same order-intake evidence Leaderdrive's book also lacks.

风险提示

截至 2026 年 3 月的财年(2026-05-13 公布),合并订单额 616.13 亿日元(同比 +16.2%),收入 595.57 亿日元(+7.0%),营业利润 25.67 亿日元,上一年度仅 0.06 亿日元——从接近零回升至真实盈利。FY3/2027 第一季度(2026 年 4–6 月,2026-08-07 公布)显示趋势加速:收入 166.81 亿日元(+23.6%),营业利润 18.40 亿日元,净利 12.74 亿日元,营业利润率从 0.9% 升至 11.0%。

同日上调全年指引:收入从 680 亿上调至 745 亿日元,营业利润从 62 亿上调至 85 亿日元(+37.1%)。公司给出的理由是工业机器人与半导体制造设备需求,并未将人形机器人列为驱动因素,季报也未披露订单额。

市场的重新定价已明显领先于这一经营复苏:过去 52 周股价上涨约 150%(从 2,316 日元升至最高 9,150 日元),而基于 TTM 净利润 29.2 亿日元的市盈率接近 187 倍——这是一个尚未被自身披露确认人形需求的、由叙事驱动的倍数。这是本站对绿的谐波最直接的上市对标:真实、已披露的经营复苏,倍数偏高但尚未到极端水平,仍在等待与绿的谐波同样缺失的订单证据。

ProductStrain-wave (harmonic) reducers and integrated actuators

Value accrualContent per joint, precision manufacturing know-how, and qualification with robot OEMs

Key riskTTM revenue JPY 62.74bn, net income JPY 2.92bn (~4.7% net margin), P/E ~187x. Stock +150% over 52 weeks on operational recovery, not on any disclosed humanoid order book; multiple compression risk if the recovery narrative outruns the semicap/industrial-robot capex cycle it's actually tied to.

Key riskTTM 收入 627.4 亿日元,净利润 29.2 亿日元(净利率约 4.7%),市盈率约 187 倍。过去 52 周股价上涨 150%,基于的是经营复苏而非任何已披露的人形订单;如果叙事跑赢其实际挂钩的半导体设备/工业机器人资本开支周期,存在倍数收缩风险。

Bottlenecks瓶颈 P14 Actuators, reducers, encoders执行器、减速器与编码器

Class
public
Country
JP
HQ
Azumino / Hotaka, Japan
Layer
Actuation / Precision reducer
Systems
muscle
Caveat stance
watch
Ticker
6324
Exchange
TSE
Purity
High
Valuation tier
2
Last verified
2026-08-27
Confidence note
High
Sources
S-FAC-022 · S-PUB-024 · S-PILOT-HDS-01 · S-PILOT-HDS-02
Translated fields
what_it_does_en · why_it_matters_en · caveat_en · key_risk_en
Chain position
upstream
COMPANY RESEARCH公司研究 Commercial evidence商业证据 Expand +展开 + Collapse −收起 −
Commercial evidence shows how far a company has moved from a product claim to repeatable customer value. We look for a defined customer task, paid deployment, operating results, the human help required, and economics that can support repeat use. Missing information stays unassessed; it does not count as evidence against the company.商业证据用于判断一家公司从产品宣称走到了可重复客户价值的哪一步。我们关注明确的客户任务、付费部署、运行结果、所需人工协助,以及能否支持重复采用的经济性。缺失信息保持未评估,不会被当作对公司的负面证据。 Each item below applies only to the cited document and period. It should be read with its evidence class, review date, and stated limits.以下每项内容仅适用于所引文件与期间,阅读时应同时考虑证据类别、核查日期与已说明的局限。
Customer and task
客户与任务
The 2025 report describes strain-wave gears for robot joints (page 11). This identifies an application, not a named customer acceptance test.2025 年报告第 11 页介绍机器人关节用谐波减速器。这说明应用场景,未提供具名客户验收测试。

CLAIM · S-PILOT-HDS-01 · Checked核查日期

Deployment and payment
部署与付款
Not yet assessed in this structured record.本结构化记录尚未评估。
Task results and human assistance
任务结果与人工协助
Not yet assessed in this structured record.本结构化记录尚未评估。
Cost and repeat purchases
成本与复购
For fiscal 2024, the report lists group sales of JPY 55,645 million and operating profit of JPY 6 million. These are group totals, not humanoid-component margins.报告列示 2024 财年集团收入 556.45 亿日元、营业利润 600 万日元。这是集团总额,并非人形机器人零部件利润率。

CLAIM · S-PILOT-HDS-02 · Checked核查日期

What the evidence cannot establish
证据的局限
Not yet assessed in this structured record.本结构化记录尚未评估。
How to evaluate commercial evidence如何评估商业证据