THKTHK 6481 ↗

Caveat

For the year ended December 2025, reported 2026-02-12, continuing-operations (industrial machinery) revenue was JPY 240,444m (+7.9% YoY) and operating income JPY 14,436m (-9.3%), operating margin 6.0% (down from 7.1%), pressured by U.S. tariffs, an equity-method loss at SAMICK THK, and structural-reform costs; the year also carried a JPY 81,639m non-cash loss on business liquidation tied to the automotive & transportation divestiture, producing a full-year net loss attributable to owners of JPY 69,891m. On 2026-02-02 THK agreed to transfer that automotive & transportation business (THK RHYTHM, ball joints/tie rods for cars, ~JPY 125.8bn of FY2025 revenue) to AP87 Co., a special-purpose vehicle backed by Advantage Partners; the transfer completed 2026-06-01, and THK now reports a single industrial-machinery segment.

H1 2026 (six months to June 2026), reported 2026-08-05, showed the resulting business sharply stronger: revenue JPY 151,067m (+32.4% YoY), operating income JPY 22,483m (+268.9%), operating margin 14.9% (up from 5.3% a year earlier); profit attributable to owners was JPY 33,744m, boosted by a JPY 16,436m one-time gain on completing the business transfer. THK attributes the recovery to 'orders remained strong mainly owing to the expansion of capital investments primarily in semiconductor-related products due to the increased demand for AI,' plus a weaker yen; China revenue was +40.9% YoY and Japan +18.8%. 'Robot' appears only as one of seven priority growth areas (alongside medical, logistics, machine tools, semiconductors, EV/renewable energy and railroads/aircraft) in THK's own growth-strategy materials; the company does not cite humanoid or general robotics demand as a current driver, in contrast to third-party market-research reports that discuss THK ball screws in the context of humanoid-robot demand.

Full-year 2026 guidance was raised the same day to revenue JPY 310,000m (+28.9%), operating income JPY 48,000m (+232.5%), profit attributable to owners JPY 54,800m (itself inflated by the non-recurring transfer gain); THK simultaneously cut its FY2026 total dividend guidance to JPY 195/share from JPY 246 paid for FY2025, reflecting a smaller post-divestiture equity base under its 8%-DOE policy. TTM net income is a headline loss of roughly JPY 39.9bn purely because the trailing-twelve-month window still carries the JPY 81.6bn liquidation loss alongside the JPY 16.4bn transfer gain; on continuing operations alone the business is solidly profitable.

The stock has re-rated hard: up about 69% over the trailing 52 weeks (a 52-week high of JPY 8,244 in June 2026) to a market cap of roughly JPY 767bn, which values the company at around 16x FY2026 guided operating income, a real, disclosed and now-simplified-into-one-segment recovery, but one THK itself ties to AI-driven semiconductor capex rather than humanoid volume.

风险提示

截至 2025 年 12 月的财年（2026-02-12 公布）：持续经营业务（工业机械）收入 2,404.44 亿日元（同比 +7.9%），营业利润 144.36 亿日元（-9.3%），营业利润率 6.0%（较上年 7.1% 下降），受美国关税、权益法联营公司 SAMICK THK 亏损及结构改革费用拖累；当年还计入与汽车与交通业务剥离相关的 816.39 亿日元非现金业务清算损失，导致全年归属母公司净亏损 698.91 亿日元。2026 年 2 月 2 日，THK 同意将该汽车与交通业务（THK RHYTHM，生产汽车球头销/横拉杆等，2025 财年收入约 1,258.17 亿日元）转让给 Advantage Partners 旗下特殊目的公司 AP87；交易已于 2026 年 6 月 1 日完成交割，THK 目前仅报告单一工业机械事业部。

2026 年上半年（截至 6 月的六个月，2026-08-05 公布）显示业务明显转强：收入 1,510.67 亿日元（同比 +32.4%），营业利润 224.83 亿日元（+268.9%），营业利润率 14.9%（上年同期为 5.3%）；归属母公司利润 337.44 亿日元，其中含完成业务转让产生的一次性收益 164.36 亿日元。公司将复苏归因于"受 AI 需求增长带动，半导体相关产品资本开支扩大，订单持续保持强劲"，叠加日元贬值；中国收入同比 +40.9%，日本 +18.8%。

"机器人"仅是 THK 自身增长战略材料中列出的七个优先增长领域之一——与医疗、物流、机床、半导体、电动车/可再生能源、轨道交通/航空并列——公司并未将人形机器人或一般机器人需求列为当前驱动因素，这与部分第三方市场研究报告将 THK 滚珠丝杠与人形机器人需求相关联的说法形成对比。同日上调 2026 全年指引：收入 3,100 亿日元（+28.9%），营业利润 480 亿日元（+232.5%），归属母公司利润 548 亿日元（该数字本身因一次性转让收益而被抬高）；同时将 2026 财年总派息指引下调至 195 日元/股（此前 2025 财年实际派息 246 日元），反映剥离后股权基础缩小、8% DOE 政策下的调整。

TTM 净利润因过去十二个月同时包含 816 亿日元清算损失与 164 亿日元转让收益，账面呈约 399 亿日元亏损；仅看持续经营业务，公司盈利状况良好。股价重新定价幅度较大：过去 52 周上涨约 69%（2026 年 6 月创 8,244 日元的 52 周高点），市值约 7,670 亿日元，约为 2026 财年营业利润指引的 16 倍——这是一次真实、已披露、且业务结构已简化为单一事业部的复苏，但 THK 自身将其归因于 AI 驱动的半导体资本开支，而非人形机器人放量。